Valorización de acciones de la empresa cuprífera líder del Perú en coyuntura COVID-19
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Date
2021-04-19
Authors
Aparicio Nizama, Jesús Manuel
Arrunátegui Urbina, Walter Simeón
Calixto Ugarte, María Elena
Saez Rivera, Fernando
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Abstract
La presente tesis tiene como finalidad determinar el valor de la acción de la empresa
cuprífera líder del Perú bajo el contexto de la pandemia de COVID -19, donde las empresas
mineras han tenido que adecuarse a una nueva coyuntura económica y social, incorporando
variables de riesgo que permitan optimizar la predictibilidad del modelo a utilizar para
estimar la valorización de acciones de la empresa. Resulta relevante esta valorización
debido a la incertidumbre generalizada a causa de la pandemia, dado que las estimaciones
respecto del efecto económico en la empresa son limitadas, por lo que se necesita estimar su
valor por si en el futuro requiriese financiarse, además de otorgar seguridad a sus inversores
sobre su continuidad. Para la valorización, se analizan los factores internos y externos que
afectan a la empresa, asimismo, se define el problema de investigación orientándolo a la
determinación del valor de las acciones de la empresa cuprífera líder del Perú bajo el nuevo
contexto de COVID -19; se revisan las principales metodologías de valorización, con la
finalidad de identificar la más idónea para el tipo de mercado cuprífero.
A partir de ello se determina que el método de flujo de caja descontado, es el
método ad-hoc para realizar la valorización de la empresa cuprífera líder del Perú. Para ello
se asumen algunas variables particulares al determinar las proyecciones de flujo de cajas
por el lapso de 10 años, las cuales se traen a valor presente, con la finalidad de hacer
contrastables los resultados. Del análisis se determinó que el precio internacional del cobre
es la variable más importante, sobre la cual, a su vez, la empresa no tiene control; lo que
orienta los esfuerzos hacia la reducción de costos para generar rentabilidad. El flujo de caja
descontado permite estimar el valor para la acción a 10 años y a perpetuidad considerando
los impactos coyunturales en dicho periodo de tiempo y las condiciones propias del sector
minero, el cual por lo general define sus proyecciones entorno a proyectos específicos. Para el análisis los flujos de caja se descontaron, y aplicaron, dos escenarios; el
primero en los cinco primeros años con las variables afectadas por la pandemia, y el
segundo en los cinco siguientes años con las variables como inicialmente se proyectaban en
el escenario previo a la pandemia. Los resultados conllevan a que la acción es rentable a 10
años, con lo cual se recomienda que los inversores, a corto plazo, no vendan las mismas.
Considerando el principio de empresa en marcha, se calculó el valor de la acción a
perpetuidad y se confirmó que el valor de la acción sigue siendo rentable a largo plazo. A
su vez, se reconoce la naturaleza global del mercado minero, y el fuerte impacto de los
mercados internacionales en la definición del precio del Cu, lo que define, y mantiene, el
valor de la empresa. Finalmente, se identifica que la empresa cuprífera líder del Perú genera
valor al obtener un mayor precio de la acción en bolsa que el identificado; lo cual reafirma
el buen posicionamiento de la empresa dentro del mercado global de los minerales.
The purpose of this thesis is to determine the share value of Peru's leading copper company in the context of the COVID -19 pandemic, where mining companies have had to adapt to a new economic and social situation, incorporating risk variables that allow optimizing the predictability of the model to be used to estimate the valuation of the company's shares. This valuation is relevant due to the generalized uncertainty due to the pandemic, since the estimates regarding the economic effect on the company are limited, so it is necessary to estimate its value in case it requires financing in the future, in addition to providing security to its investors about its continuity. For the valuation, the internal and external factors that affect the company are analyzed, likewise, the research problem is defined orienting it to the determination of the value of the shares of the leading copper company in Peru under the new context of COVID -19; The main valuation methodologies are reviewed, to identify the most suitable for the type of copper market. From this, it is determined that the discounted cash flow method is the ad-hoc method to carry out the valuation of the leading copper company in Peru. For this, some particular variables are assumed when determining the cash flow projections for 10 years, which are brought to present value, to make the results verifiable. From the analysis, it was determined that the international price of copper is the most important variable, over which, in turn, the company has no control; which guides efforts towards cost reduction to generate profitability. The discounted cash flow makes it possible to estimate the value for the share at 10 years and in perpetuity considering the short-term impacts in that period and the conditions of the mining sector, which generally defines its projections around specific projects. For the analysis, the cash flows were discounted and two scenarios were applied; the first in the first five years with the variables affected by the pandemic, and the second in the next five years with the variables as initially projected in the pre-pandemic scenario. The results mean that the stock is profitable for 10 years, which is why it is recommended that investors, in the short term, do not sell them. Considering the going concern principle, the share value was calculated in perpetuity and it was confirmed that the share value remains profitable over the long term. At the same time, the global nature of the mining market is recognized, and the strong impact of international markets in the definition of the copper price, which defines, and maintains, the value of the company. Finally, it is identified that the leading copper company in Peru generates value by obtaining a higher share price on the stock exchange than the one identified; which reaffirms the good positioning of the company within the global mineral market. of the company within the global mineral market.
The purpose of this thesis is to determine the share value of Peru's leading copper company in the context of the COVID -19 pandemic, where mining companies have had to adapt to a new economic and social situation, incorporating risk variables that allow optimizing the predictability of the model to be used to estimate the valuation of the company's shares. This valuation is relevant due to the generalized uncertainty due to the pandemic, since the estimates regarding the economic effect on the company are limited, so it is necessary to estimate its value in case it requires financing in the future, in addition to providing security to its investors about its continuity. For the valuation, the internal and external factors that affect the company are analyzed, likewise, the research problem is defined orienting it to the determination of the value of the shares of the leading copper company in Peru under the new context of COVID -19; The main valuation methodologies are reviewed, to identify the most suitable for the type of copper market. From this, it is determined that the discounted cash flow method is the ad-hoc method to carry out the valuation of the leading copper company in Peru. For this, some particular variables are assumed when determining the cash flow projections for 10 years, which are brought to present value, to make the results verifiable. From the analysis, it was determined that the international price of copper is the most important variable, over which, in turn, the company has no control; which guides efforts towards cost reduction to generate profitability. The discounted cash flow makes it possible to estimate the value for the share at 10 years and in perpetuity considering the short-term impacts in that period and the conditions of the mining sector, which generally defines its projections around specific projects. For the analysis, the cash flows were discounted and two scenarios were applied; the first in the first five years with the variables affected by the pandemic, and the second in the next five years with the variables as initially projected in the pre-pandemic scenario. The results mean that the stock is profitable for 10 years, which is why it is recommended that investors, in the short term, do not sell them. Considering the going concern principle, the share value was calculated in perpetuity and it was confirmed that the share value remains profitable over the long term. At the same time, the global nature of the mining market is recognized, and the strong impact of international markets in the definition of the copper price, which defines, and maintains, the value of the company. Finally, it is identified that the leading copper company in Peru generates value by obtaining a higher share price on the stock exchange than the one identified; which reaffirms the good positioning of the company within the global mineral market. of the company within the global mineral market.
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Keywords
Industria minera--Aspectos económicos--Perú, Industria minera--Aspectos sociales--Perú, Empresas--Valoración, COVID-19 (Enfermedad)
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