Business Consulting EGPERU: Mejora de la competitividad de la central térmica ventanilla en el mediano y largo plazo
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Acceso al texto completo solo para la Comunidad PUCP
Resumen
En un contexto de creciente competencia y mayor penetración de energías renovables en el
sector eléctrico peruano, la central térmica Ventanilla de EGPERU enfrenta desafíos que afectan
su competitividad y sostenibilidad. Este estudio tiene como objetivo principal identificar y
proponer soluciones para asegurar su posición en el mercado.
Tras un diagnóstico de deficiencias operativas y un análisis de diferentes alternativas, se
determinó que la reubicación de la turbina TG8 desde la central Santa Rosa constituye la
estrategia más adecuada. Con esta intervención, se incrementará la capacidad instalada de
Ventanilla en 57.44 MW, reduciendo los costos variables entre 0.25 y 0.47 US$/MWh. Esta
mejora en costos y potencia efectiva reforzará la posición de Ventanilla en el ranking de
despacho del COES, robusteciendo su sostenibilidad y eficiencia.
El plan de implementación, que contempla las fases de diseño, desmontaje, montaje y
pruebas, se desarrollará en un período aproximado de 15.5 meses, con una inversión estimada de
US$ 19,166,000. Los resultados del análisis financiero indican un VAN económico de US$
8,537,015 y un VAN social de US$ 1,154,700, por un impacto positivo en la reducción de
emisiones de CO2. La recuperación de la inversión y los indicadores de rentabilidad demuestran
la viabilidad técnica y económica del proyecto.
Con el fin de mitigar riesgos e identificar oportunidades, se llevó a cabo un análisis de
sensibilidades que incluyó escenarios de crecimiento pesimista de la demanda y eventuales
demoras en la ejecución. En el primer caso, factores macroeconómicos adversos y retrasos en
proyectos mineros e industriales podrían incidir en la demanda eléctrica, mientras que, en el
segundo, potenciales atrasos en la obra afectarían la disponibilidad operativa de Ventanilla.
Este estudio ofrece a EGPERU un enfoque práctico para adaptarse a los cambios
estructurales del mercado eléctrico, fortaleciendo su sostenibilidad y competitividad a largo
plazo, en consonancia con los objetivos de eficiencia energética y descarbonización planteados a
nivel nacional e internacional.
In a context of increasing competition and higher penetration of renewable energies in Peru’s electric sector, EGPERU’s Ventanilla thermal power plant faces challenges that impact its competitiveness and sustainability. This study aims primarily to identify and propose solutions to optimize the plant’s operational performance and secure its position in the market. Following a diagnosis of operational deficiencies and an analysis of potential alternatives, relocating the TG8 turbine from the Santa Rosa power plant was determined to be the most suitable strategy. Through this intervention, Ventanilla’s installed capacity will increase by 57.44 MW, and variable costs will be reduced by US$0.25 to US$0.47 per MWh. These improvements in costs and effective power output will strengthen Ventanilla’s ranking in the COES dispatch system, enhancing its efficiency and long-term sustainability. The implementation plan, which covers design, dismantling, assembly, and testing, will take approximately 15.5 months and requires an estimated investment of US$19,166,000. Financial analyses indicate an economic NPV of US$8,537,015 and a social NPV of US$1,154,700, along with a positive impact on CO2 emissions reduction. The projected payback period and profitability indicators demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of the project. To mitigate risks and identify opportunities, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, considering a pessimistic demand growth scenario and potential project delays. In the first scenario, adverse macroeconomic factors and delays in mining or industrial projects could affect electricity demand, while in the second, project delays would compromise Ventanilla’s operational availability and competitiveness. This study provides EGPERU with a practical approach to adapt to structural changes in the electrical market, reinforcing its sustainability and competitiveness over the long term. It aligns with broader energy efficiency and decarbonization objectives at both national and international levels.
In a context of increasing competition and higher penetration of renewable energies in Peru’s electric sector, EGPERU’s Ventanilla thermal power plant faces challenges that impact its competitiveness and sustainability. This study aims primarily to identify and propose solutions to optimize the plant’s operational performance and secure its position in the market. Following a diagnosis of operational deficiencies and an analysis of potential alternatives, relocating the TG8 turbine from the Santa Rosa power plant was determined to be the most suitable strategy. Through this intervention, Ventanilla’s installed capacity will increase by 57.44 MW, and variable costs will be reduced by US$0.25 to US$0.47 per MWh. These improvements in costs and effective power output will strengthen Ventanilla’s ranking in the COES dispatch system, enhancing its efficiency and long-term sustainability. The implementation plan, which covers design, dismantling, assembly, and testing, will take approximately 15.5 months and requires an estimated investment of US$19,166,000. Financial analyses indicate an economic NPV of US$8,537,015 and a social NPV of US$1,154,700, along with a positive impact on CO2 emissions reduction. The projected payback period and profitability indicators demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of the project. To mitigate risks and identify opportunities, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, considering a pessimistic demand growth scenario and potential project delays. In the first scenario, adverse macroeconomic factors and delays in mining or industrial projects could affect electricity demand, while in the second, project delays would compromise Ventanilla’s operational availability and competitiveness. This study provides EGPERU with a practical approach to adapt to structural changes in the electrical market, reinforcing its sustainability and competitiveness over the long term. It aligns with broader energy efficiency and decarbonization objectives at both national and international levels.
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Energía renovable--Perú, Fuentes de energía renovables, Fuentes de energía renovables