Determinantes de las ofertas económicas en proyectos de infraestructura con ingresos garantizados
Date
2024-06-26
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Abstract
El presente documento proporciona, por primera vez para Perú, una
estimación econométrica de los determinantes de las ofertas económicas
de proyectos de infraestructura con ingresos garantizados, adjudicados por
Proinversión, para tal fin, se ha estudiado los resultados de la adjudicación
de la buena pro de todos los proyectos de infraestructura encargados a
dicha entidad en el periodo 1998 – 2022, en los que contractualmente se
establece, mediante subasta, una garantía de ingresos por parte del Estado
como respaldo de la ejecución de las inversiones y la operación y
mantenimiento, los proyectos analizados totalizan USD 20 104 millones
(dólares constantes de julio de 2022) de inversión referencial, y
corresponden a: Líneas de Transmisión, Carreteras, Puertos, Aeropuertos,
Ferrocarriles, Telecomunicaciones, Irrigación, Saneamiento y Turismo, los
cuales contienen 210 ofertas económicas válidas, distribuidas en 87
proyectos adjudicados.
Se concluye que: 1) el número de competidores, medido en términos de
número de precalificados o número de ofertas económicas válidas, impacta
significativamente en la reducción de las ofertas económicas, 2) el aumento
de la inversión referencial no conlleva necesariamente a un aumento de las
ofertas económicas, 3) un aumento de las garantías requeridas conlleva a
un aumento de las ofertas económicas, 4) el aporte de capital no resulta
ser una variable relevante para la estimación del monto de las ofertas
económicas.
Se recomienda: 1) fortalecer las acciones de promoción de proyectos, así,
en aquellos que no existan suficientes postores debe evaluarse el costo
beneficio de proseguir con la promoción o iniciar la adjudicación. Una
optimización del presupuesto de inversión puede llevar a mejorar la
eficiencia en la adjudicación del proyecto, 3) una adecuada optimización de
garantías es necesaria para lograr ofertas económicas competitivas.
The purpose of this document is to estimate the determinants of the economic offers of infrastructure projects with guaranteed income, for the first time in Peru. The data used in this work corresponds to the results of the award of the good pro of all the infrastructure projects commissioned to Proinversión in the period 1998 - 2022, in which a guarantee of income is contractually established by the State as support. From the execution of the investments and the operation and maintenance, the projects that make up the study total USD 20 104 million (constant dollars of July 2022), correspond to Transmission Lines, Highways, Ports, Airports, Railways, Telecommunications, Irrigation, Sanitation and Tourism, which amount to 87 awarded projects and contain 210 valid economic offers. It is concluded that: 1) the number of competitors, measured in terms of the number of prequalified or number of valid economic offers, has a significant impact on the reduction of economic offers, 2) the increase in referential investment does not necessarily lead to an increase in economic offers, 3) an increase in the required guarantees leads to an increase in economic offers, 4) the capital contribution does not turn out to be a relevant variable for estimating the amount of economic offers. It is recommended: 1) to strengthen the promotion actions of projects, thus, in those that there are not enough bidders, the cost-benefit of continuing with the promotion or starting the adjudication must be evaluated. An optimization of the investment budget can lead to improve the efficiency in the adjudication of the project, 3) an adequate optimization of guarantees is necessary to achieve competitive economic offers.
The purpose of this document is to estimate the determinants of the economic offers of infrastructure projects with guaranteed income, for the first time in Peru. The data used in this work corresponds to the results of the award of the good pro of all the infrastructure projects commissioned to Proinversión in the period 1998 - 2022, in which a guarantee of income is contractually established by the State as support. From the execution of the investments and the operation and maintenance, the projects that make up the study total USD 20 104 million (constant dollars of July 2022), correspond to Transmission Lines, Highways, Ports, Airports, Railways, Telecommunications, Irrigation, Sanitation and Tourism, which amount to 87 awarded projects and contain 210 valid economic offers. It is concluded that: 1) the number of competitors, measured in terms of the number of prequalified or number of valid economic offers, has a significant impact on the reduction of economic offers, 2) the increase in referential investment does not necessarily lead to an increase in economic offers, 3) an increase in the required guarantees leads to an increase in economic offers, 4) the capital contribution does not turn out to be a relevant variable for estimating the amount of economic offers. It is recommended: 1) to strengthen the promotion actions of projects, thus, in those that there are not enough bidders, the cost-benefit of continuing with the promotion or starting the adjudication must be evaluated. An optimization of the investment budget can lead to improve the efficiency in the adjudication of the project, 3) an adequate optimization of guarantees is necessary to achieve competitive economic offers.
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Keywords
Ingreso garantizado--Perú, Inversiones--Perú, Cooperación pública-privada--Perú, Proyectos de desarrollo económico--Perú, Infraestructura (Economía)--Perú
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