Análisis del efecto de los fondos de pensiones en el desarrollo del mercado de valores y su implicancia en Perú (1997-2020)
Date
2022-08-07
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Abstract
Este trabajo tiene por objetivo principal determinar el efecto de los fondos de
pensiones en el desarrollo del mercado de valores, al considerar según el tipo de
mercado: emergente o frontera. En ese sentido, se plantea la siguiente hipótesis: la
relación entre el sistema de pensiones y el desarrollo del mercado de valores es no
lineal. Específicamente, el desempeño del mercado de valores peruano no se asemeja
a un mercado emergente; por lo que es importante considerar este hecho para la
evaluación del impacto de los fondos de pensiones. Para ello se comparan los
principales indicadores del mercado de capitales y macroeconómicos del Perú.
Planteada dicha hipótesis, la investigación se basará en el uso de un panel de datos
que incluye 32 países clasificados como mercados emergentes y frontera. De manera
que, a partir de una ampliación del modelo teórico desarrollado por Calderon-Rosell,
se encuentra que el impacto de los fondos de pensiones en el desarrollo del mercado
de capitales emergente y frontera es distinto, además de presentar una relación no
lineal. En conclusión, aun cuando Perú sea clasificado como emergente, su
comportamiento en la práctica como un mercado frontera provoca que el impacto de
un mayor tamaño de los fondos de pensiones restrinja el desarrollo del mercado, de
manera que, más allá de su clasificación como emergente, debe ser estudiado como
frontera.
The main objective of this work is to determine the effect of pension funds on the development of the stock market, considering their classification according to the type of market: emerging or frontier. In that sense, the following hypothesis is raised: the relationship between the pension system and the development of the stock market is non-linear. Specifically, the performance of the Peruvian stock market is not similar to an emerging market; therefore, it is important to consider this fact for the evaluation of the impact of pension funds. To this end, we compare the main capital market and macroeconomic indicators in Peru. Raised this hypothesis, the research will be based on the use of a data panel that includes 32 countries classified as emerging markets and frontiers. Thus, based on an extension of the theoretical model developed by Calderon-Rosell, it is found that the impact of pension funds on the development of the emerging and frontier capital market is different, in addition to presenting a non-linear relationship. In conclusion, even if Peru is classified as an emerging market, its behavior in practice as a frontier market causes the impact of a larger size of pension funds to restrict the development of the market, so that, beyond its classification as an emerging market, it should be studied as a frontier one.
The main objective of this work is to determine the effect of pension funds on the development of the stock market, considering their classification according to the type of market: emerging or frontier. In that sense, the following hypothesis is raised: the relationship between the pension system and the development of the stock market is non-linear. Specifically, the performance of the Peruvian stock market is not similar to an emerging market; therefore, it is important to consider this fact for the evaluation of the impact of pension funds. To this end, we compare the main capital market and macroeconomic indicators in Peru. Raised this hypothesis, the research will be based on the use of a data panel that includes 32 countries classified as emerging markets and frontiers. Thus, based on an extension of the theoretical model developed by Calderon-Rosell, it is found that the impact of pension funds on the development of the emerging and frontier capital market is different, in addition to presenting a non-linear relationship. In conclusion, even if Peru is classified as an emerging market, its behavior in practice as a frontier market causes the impact of a larger size of pension funds to restrict the development of the market, so that, beyond its classification as an emerging market, it should be studied as a frontier one.
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Keywords
Fondos de pensiones--Perú, Mercado de capitales--Perú, Mercados--Perú, Desarrollo económico--Perú
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