Impacto de las medidas no arancelarias técnicas: un análisis gravitacional de las exportaciones peruanas entre 2012-2016
Date
2020-10-21
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Abstract
En los últimos años los distintos socios comerciales de nuestro país han reducido
gradualmente sus barreras arancelarias a nuestras exportaciones como parte de
los acuerdos multilaterales y regionales comerciales. En contraste, las medidas
de carácter no arancelario, en especial las de tipo técnico, se han incrementado
fuertemente durante el mismo período de tiempo, causando dudas acerca de su
verdadero efecto sobre nuestras exportaciones. Por ello, el presente trabajo de
investigación tiene como objetivo principal estudiar el impacto de la imposición
de medidas no arancelarias (MNAs) de carácter técnico por parte de los
principales socios comerciales peruanos sobre las exportaciones de nuestro
país, considerando bienes con datos desagregados a seis dígitos (HS-6) entre
los años 2012-2016. En particular, se pretende estudiar los efectos de las MNAs
técnicas, en conjunto y desagregadas en sus tres categorías, sobre las
exportaciones totales y desagregadas por sectores de productos según el
sistema armonizado (HS) durante el mencionado quinquenio. Para ello, se hace
uso de la ecuación de gravedad como herramienta empírica, la cual será
adaptada según la metodología planteada por UNCTAD (2012), Theie (2014),
Kang y Ramizo (2017) y Disdier et al. (2008). Dichos estudios recomiendan dos
tipos de mediciones para capturar los efectos de las MNAs técnicas. El método
de estimación a ser usado es el llamado Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood
(PPML) introducido por Santos Silva y Tenreyro (2006).
In recent years the different trading partners of our country have gradually reduced their tariff barriers to our exports as part of multilateral and regional trade agreements. In contrast, non-tariff measures, especially those of a technical nature, have increased strongly during the same period of time, causing doubts about their real effects on our exports. Therefore, this research work has as main goal to study the impact of the imposition of non-tariff measures (NTMs) of a technical nature by the main Peruvian trading partners on our exports, considering goods with data disaggregated at six-digit level (HS-6) between 2012-2016. In particular, the intention is to study the effects of technical NTMs, as a whole and disaggregated in its three categories, on total exports and disaggregated by product sectors according to the harmonized system (HS) during the mentioned five-year period. For this purpose, the gravity equation is used as empirical tool, which will be adapted according to the methodology proposed by UNCTAD (2012), Theie (2014), Kang y Ramizo (2017) y Disdier et al. (2008). These studies recommend two types of measurements to capture the effects of technical NTMs. The estimation method to be used is the so-called Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) introduced by Santos Silva y Tenreyro (2006).
In recent years the different trading partners of our country have gradually reduced their tariff barriers to our exports as part of multilateral and regional trade agreements. In contrast, non-tariff measures, especially those of a technical nature, have increased strongly during the same period of time, causing doubts about their real effects on our exports. Therefore, this research work has as main goal to study the impact of the imposition of non-tariff measures (NTMs) of a technical nature by the main Peruvian trading partners on our exports, considering goods with data disaggregated at six-digit level (HS-6) between 2012-2016. In particular, the intention is to study the effects of technical NTMs, as a whole and disaggregated in its three categories, on total exports and disaggregated by product sectors according to the harmonized system (HS) during the mentioned five-year period. For this purpose, the gravity equation is used as empirical tool, which will be adapted according to the methodology proposed by UNCTAD (2012), Theie (2014), Kang y Ramizo (2017) y Disdier et al. (2008). These studies recommend two types of measurements to capture the effects of technical NTMs. The estimation method to be used is the so-called Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) introduced by Santos Silva y Tenreyro (2006).
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Exportaciones--Perú--Siglo XXI, Comercio internacional--Perú--Siglo XXI, Aranceles de aduana--Perú--Siglo XXI
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